Pipeline Intelligence Dashboard v2.3

Pipeline Overview

Deal Pulse

Funnel Leakage

Probabilistic Forecast (Monte Carlo)

10,000 simulations with stage-based conversion rates, correlated outcomes, slip risk, and partial close modeling

The Monte Carlo simulation models real-world risk: deals are correlated (bad quarters hurt many deals at once), early-stage deals frequently slip to next quarter, and large deals often close at reduced scope. These factors create a left-skewed distribution. There are more paths to missing the target than exceeding it. A median outcome near target with a lower hit probability means you will probably land close to target, but the downside scenarios are heavier and more numerous than the upside ones.

Rep Snapshots

Pipeline by Stage

Pipeline by Rep

Top Deals by Weighted Value

Deal	Rep	Stage	FC	Amount	Weighted	SPICED	Confidence	Close Date	Last Activity	Risk

Funnel Leakage Intelligence (Last 90 Days)

301 deals lost totaling $6.55M in the last 90 days (excludes Stage 0 - Target)
Primary loss reasons: timing/budget freeze, no decision, competitive displacement
Highest loss concentration in Stage 1 (Educate) and Stage 2 (Orchestrate), indicating qualification and progression gaps
Action: Tighten ICP qualification at intake. Deals entering pipeline without confirmed Pain + Impact have 3x higher loss rate.

Loss Summary

Deals Lost (90d)

301

Excludes Stage 0

Total Lost Value

$6.55M

Avg Deal Size Lost

$21.8K

Win Rate (Stage 2+)

21.5%

90d, Orchestrate+ only. Benchmark: 25%

Loss by Stage (Last 90 Days)

Slipping Deals (Stage 1+, 30+ Days No Activity)

Deal	Rep	Stage	Amount	Days Inactive	Status

Stage Probabilities

Each deal's base probability is determined by its pipeline stage.

Stage	Base P	Variance	Slip Risk
0-Target	5%	0.08	50%
1-Educate	10%	0.08	40%
2-Orchestrate	25%	0.12	30%
3-Define	50%	0.15	20%
4-Trade/SOW	75%	0.10	10%
5-Selection	90%	0.10	5%
6-Commit	95%	0.10	5%

Monte Carlo Simulation

10,000 simulations with:

25% market correlation (Gaussian copula via Box-Muller)
Per-deal: combinedZ = sqrt(0.25)*marketShock + sqrt(0.75)*idioNoise
adjustedP = clamp(baseP + combinedZ * variance, 0.01, 0.99)
Stage-based slip risk (5-50%): slipped deals contribute $0
Partial close for deals over $100K: 30% chance at 70-90% face value
Q2 won ($591,117) added to each simulation

Pipeline Intelligence