The Monte Carlo simulation models real-world risk: deals are correlated (bad quarters hurt many deals at once), early-stage deals frequently slip to next quarter, and large deals often close at reduced scope. These factors create a left-skewed distribution. There are more paths to missing the target than exceeding it. A median outcome near target with a lower hit probability means you will probably land close to target, but the downside scenarios are heavier and more numerous than the upside ones. In v2.1, the composite health model further calibrates each deal using historical stage win rates adjusted by a 5-signal health score (SPICED completeness, HubSpot deal score, forecast category, engagement recency, and deal age).